Primeira Liga · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 19:00
Alverca vs Casa Pia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Team pages: Alverca · Casa Pia
Full time 1-1 · Tip “Under 2.5 goals” won
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Saturday (7 November, 19:00), Alverca host Casa Pia.
The situation: Alverca are in a relegation battle – Casa Pia are in a relegation battle
Alverca are in position 11 with 11 points, Casa Pia follow in position 17 with 7 points. Goal difference: 13-14 for Alverca, 5-19 for Casa Pia. Alverca are just 5 points above the relegation zone. Casa Pia are just one point above the relegation zone.
Form guide Alverca: Inconsistent at home
At home they recently beat Rio Ave (1-0). There were also defeats against Arouca (0-1) and Braga (1-2). Alverca picked up 1 win from their last 5 home games, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.
Form guide Casa Pia: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Casa Pia recently played 2-0 at Estrela Amadora, 2-1 at Estoril and 0-0 at Vitória Guimarães. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 defeats, 4-4 goals. Casa Pia scored in only 2 of those 5 games.
Alverca at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Casa Pia away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Evenly matched record
Record in the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Alverca, no wins for Casa Pia, 0 draws. There were 3.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 3-1 (Alverca vs Casa Pia, 12/04/2026).
- 12/04/2026 Alverca – Casa Pia 3-1
- 29/11/2025 Casa Pia – Alverca 0-2
Injuries and suspensions
Alverca are without: Julián Martínez (meniscus injury), Sabit Abdulai (knee injury).
Casa Pia are without: André Gomes (muscle injury), Ricardo Batista (injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Who will score?
Top scorers, odds and striker form – Primeira Liga: Primeira Liga goalscorer tips.
Primeira Liga table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 13-17 | 14 |
| 10 | Famalicão | 11 | 15-14 | 13 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 13-14 | 11 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 10 | 15-19 | 10 |
| 13 | Vitória Guimarães | 10 | 10-10 | 9 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 10-19 | 7 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 9-23 | 7 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 5-19 | 7 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 5-19 | 2 |
Alverca vs Casa Pia odds
Alverca go in as favourites: the home win is priced at 1.75, a draw 3.60 and a Casa Pia win 4.50. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.90.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alverca to win | 1.75 | 53% | 45% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 26% | 28% |
| Casa Pia to win | 4.50 | 21% | 27% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.12 | 79% | 73% |
| Double chance X2 | 2.05 | 47% | 55% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73% | 69% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | 49% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 51% | 56% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 27% | 23% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.28 | 73% | 77% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Alverca vs Casa Pia
In short: We are backing Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85. Our score prediction: 1-1. We put the chance at around 56%, while the odds imply only 51%. That is where the value in this bet lies.
For
- Only 2 of Alverca’s last 5 home games had three or more goals.
- Only 1 of Casa Pia’s last 5 away games had three or more goals.
Against
- An early goal or a red card can turn any match.
Tip: Under 2.5 goals · Odds 1.85 · Prediction 1-1 · Risk medium
FAQ: Alverca vs Casa Pia
When do Alverca play Casa Pia?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 19:00 (Primeira Liga).
Who are the favourites in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca are favourites: a home win pays 1.75, a Casa Pia win 4.50.
What is the tip for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85. We expect a 1-1. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Alverca and Casa Pia go?
Record in the last 2 meetings: 2 wins for Alverca, no wins for Casa Pia, 0 draws. There were 3.0 goals per game on average. Their last meeting ended 3-1 (Alverca vs Casa Pia, 12/04/2026).
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