Argentine Primera División · Saturday, 07/11/2026 · 02:00
Tigre vs Sarmiento Prediction, Tips & Odds
Full time 1-0 · Tip “Over 1.5 goals” lost
Odds may change before kick-off · 18+ · not betting advice
On Saturday (7 November, 02:00), Tigre host Sarmiento.
The situation: Tigre want to stay near the top – Sarmiento have gone 4 games without a win
Sarmiento are in position 18 with 40 points, ahead of the hosts (36 points, position 23). Goal difference: 33-31 for Tigre, 36-43 for Sarmiento. Tigre are 17 points off a knockout round (per group) place. Sarmiento are 16 points off a knockout round (per group) place.
Form guide Tigre: Home form is a problem
Recent home defeats came against Atlético Tucumán (0-1), Banfield (1-2) and Rosario Central (0-1). Tigre picked up 1 win from their last 5 home games, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
Form guide Sarmiento: Inconsistent on the road
On the road, Sarmiento recently played 0-2 at Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata, 3-1 at Aldosivi and 1-3 at Racing. Record in the last 5 away games: 2 wins, no draws, 3 defeats, 7-10 goals. Sarmiento scored in 4 of those 5 games.
Tigre at home, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Sarmiento away, last 5 (oldest → newest)
Head-to-head: Rarely many goals
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 1-0 to Sarmiento (Sarmiento vs Tigre, 25/04/2026).
- 25/04/2026 Sarmiento – Tigre 1-0
Injuries and suspensions
Tigre are without: Simón Rivero (cruciate ligament injury), Ramón Arias (knee injury).
Sarmiento are without: Agustín Seyral (cruciate ligament injury).
Late absences on matchday may not be included yet.
Argentine Primera División table
| Pos | Team | P | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | San Lorenzo | 33 | 25-32 | 42 |
| 17 | Huracán | 32 | 29-30 | 41 |
| 18 | Sarmiento | 31 | 36-43 | 40 |
| 19 | Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza | 31 | 31-38 | 40 |
| 20 | Racing Club | 34 | 35-41 | 39 |
| 21 | Talleres de Córdoba | 32 | 33-36 | 38 |
| 22 | Newell's Old Boys | 31 | 29-38 | 37 |
| 23 | Tigre | 31 | 33-31 | 36 |
| 24 | Platense | 32 | 28-35 | 36 |
| 25 | Banfield | 31 | 33-42 | 32 |
Tigre vs Sarmiento odds
Tigre go in as favourites: the home win is priced at 1.80, a draw 3.10 and a Sarmiento win 4.40. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.15.
| Bet | Odds | implied by odds | our view |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigre to win | 1.80 | 50% | 50% |
| Draw | 3.10 | 29% | 28% |
| Sarmiento to win | 4.40 | 21% | 22% |
| Double chance 1X | 1.17 | 79% | 78% |
| Double chance X2 | 1.72 | 50% | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 67% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 43% | 43% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 57% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 25% | 24% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.22 | 75% | 76% |
“Implied by odds”: the probability contained in the odds (without the bookmaker margin). “Our view”: the odds and our statistical model combined.
Betting tip & prediction: Tigre vs Sarmiento
In short: Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.35. We expect a 1-1. We put the chance at around 68%. The odds reflect that quite accurately, so this tip is no bargain.
For
- 2 of Tigre’s last 5 home games produced three or more goals.
- For Sarmiento away it was 3 of 5.
Against
- Tigre are without 2 players.
- Sarmiento are missing 1 player.
Tip: Over 1.5 goals · Odds 1.35 · Prediction 1-1 · Risk medium
FAQ: Tigre vs Sarmiento
When do Tigre play Sarmiento?
Kick-off is on Saturday, 07/11/2026, at 02:00 (Argentine Primera División).
Who are the favourites in Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Tigre are favourites: a home win pays 1.80, a Sarmiento win 4.40.
What is the tip for Tigre vs Sarmiento?
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.35. We expect a 1-1. Risk: medium.
How did recent meetings between Tigre and Sarmiento go?
The only meeting in the last two seasons ended 1-0 to Sarmiento (Sarmiento vs Tigre, 25/04/2026).
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