Championship prediction 2026/27: Promotion and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Championship season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 15 matchdays, 31 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | PromotionPos. 1–2 | Play-offsPos. 3–6 | RelegationPos. 22–24 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 29 | 80 | 17% | 34% | 45% | – | 4.3 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 83 | 29% | 49% | 39% | – | 3.4 |
| 3 | Stoke | 29 | 78 | 10% | 22% | 46% | – | 5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 28 | 82 | 25% | 45% | 42% | – | 3.5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 28 | 74 | 4% | 11% | 38% | <1% | 6.9 |
| 6 | West Brom | 28 | 75 | 5% | 12% | 41% | <1% | 6.7 |
| 7 | Swansea | 26 | 74 | 4% | 11% | 38% | <1% | 7.0 |
| 8 | QPR | 24 | 70 | 1% | 4% | 25% | <1% | 9.1 |
| 9 | West Ham | 23 | 69 | 1% | 4% | 21% | <1% | 9.6 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 22 | 67 | 1% | 2% | 15% | <1% | 10.5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 22 | 64 | <1% | 1% | 8% | 1% | 12.3 |
| 12 | Norwich | 21 | 69 | 1% | 4% | 21% | <1% | 9.7 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 21 | 62 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 2% | 13.5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 18 | 57 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 6% | 16.1 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 18 | 61 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 2% | 14.1 |
| 16 | Millwall | 18 | 63 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | 12.9 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 18 | 58 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 6% | 15.8 |
| 18 | Bolton | 17 | 54 | – | <1% | 1% | 15% | 17.8 |
| 19 | Charlton | 17 | 54 | – | – | 1% | 13% | 17.6 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 51 | – | <1% | <1% | 22% | 18.8 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 49 | – | – | <1% | 34% | 19.8 |
| 22 | Burnley | 10 | 44 | – | – | <1% | 61% | 21.5 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 45 | – | – | <1% | 58% | 21.3 |
| 24 | Preston | 8 | 40 | – | – | – | 78% | 22.6 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Championship league table calculatorChampionship tips
Who will win the Championship title in 2026/27?
The title race is open. Middlesbrough are narrowly ahead with 29 per cent. The closest challenger is Southampton (25%), followed by Birmingham (17%). Birmingham currently lead with 29 points, but the model rates Middlesbrough stronger for the rest of the season.
Who goes up?
The automatic promotion places (Places 1–2) are most often reached by Middlesbrough (49%), followed by Southampton (45%) and Birmingham (34%).
Who goes down?
Preston are most at risk: in 78 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 22–24). Also in danger: Burnley (61%), Derby (58%), Lincoln (34%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 372 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- Play-off and play-out matches are not simulated; the column shows how often a team reaches the corresponding league position.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.