Serie A prediction 2026/27: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Serie A season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 11 matchdays, 27 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Champions LeaguePos. 1–4 | Europa LeaguePos. 5 | Conference LeaguePos. 6 | RelegationPos. 18–20 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lazio | 29 | 76 | 19% | 82% | 10% | 5% | – | 3.1 |
| 2 | Roma | 27 | 79 | 32% | 90% | 6% | 2% | – | 2.4 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 25 | 80 | 36% | 92% | 5% | 2% | – | 2.3 |
| 4 | Como | 23 | 73 | 9% | 67% | 18% | 9% | – | 3.9 |
| 5 | Milan | 21 | 69 | 3% | 43% | 24% | 15% | – | 4.9 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 20 | 56 | <1% | 3% | 5% | 11% | <1% | 8.7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 17 | 62 | <1% | 12% | 14% | 22% | <1% | 6.8 |
| 8 | Bologna | 17 | 56 | <1% | 3% | 5% | 10% | <1% | 8.8 |
| 9 | Cagliari | 16 | 50 | – | <1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 11.0 |
| 10 | Napoli | 15 | 59 | <1% | 6% | 9% | 16% | <1% | 7.8 |
| 11 | Torino | 14 | 48 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 11.9 |
| 12 | Genoa | 13 | 48 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 12.1 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 11 | 48 | – | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 11.8 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 38 | – | – | <1% | <1% | 32% | 15.9 |
| 15 | Fiorentina | 8 | 40 | – | – | <1% | <1% | 23% | 15.0 |
| 16 | Parma | 8 | 38 | – | – | – | <1% | 32% | 15.9 |
| 17 | Sassuolo | 8 | 40 | – | <1% | – | <1% | 25% | 15.3 |
| 18 | Monza | 7 | 35 | – | – | – | <1% | 50% | 17.0 |
| 19 | Venezia | 6 | 32 | – | – | – | – | 70% | 18.1 |
| 20 | Udinese | 5 | 35 | – | <1% | – | <1% | 54% | 17.2 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Serie A league table calculatorSerie A tips
Who will win the Serie-A title in 2026/27?
The title race is open. Inter Milan are narrowly ahead with 36 per cent. The closest challenger is Roma (32%), followed by Lazio (19%). Lazio currently lead with 29 points, but the model rates Inter Milan stronger for the rest of the season.
Race for the Champions League
It’s tight for places 1–4: Lazio reach 82%, Como reach 67%, AC Milan reach 43%.
Who goes down?
Venezia are most at risk: in 70 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 18–20). Also in danger: Udinese (54%), Monza (50%), Lecce (32%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 274 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- If teams are level on points, head-to-head record decides first in this league; the simulation simply sorts by goal difference and goals scored.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.