Chilean Primera División prediction 2026: Title and relegation chances
10,000 simulated rests of the Chilean Primera División season: how likely is first place, who ends up in which zone, where does each team finish? As of 08/11/2026 after 26 matchdays, 4 matchdays left.
Predicted table
| Pos. | Team | Pts | Exp. pts | ChampionsPos. 1 | Copa LibertadoresPos. 2–3 | RelegationPos. 15–16 | Avg pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo-Colo | 58 | 66 | >99% | <1% | – | 1.0 |
| 2 | Universidad de Chile | 48 | 56 | <1% | >99% | – | 2.1 |
| 3 | Universidad Católica | 46 | 52 | <1% | 94% | – | 2.9 |
| 4 | Limache | 40 | 46 | – | 6% | – | 4.8 |
| 5 | Everton | 40 | 44 | – | <1% | – | 6.0 |
| 6 | Palestino | 38 | 43 | – | <1% | – | 6.6 |
| 7 | Deportes Concepción | 38 | 41 | – | <1% | – | 8.2 |
| 8 | La Serena | 37 | 40 | – | – | – | 9.3 |
| 9 | Huachipato | 36 | 41 | – | <1% | – | 8.3 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 35 | 41 | – | <1% | – | 8.3 |
| 11 | Ñublense | 35 | 40 | – | – | – | 9.5 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 31 | 36 | – | – | <1% | 11.9 |
| 13 | Audax Italiano | 30 | 35 | – | – | 1% | 12.3 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 27 | 31 | – | – | 10% | 13.8 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepción | 23 | 27 | – | – | 91% | 15.2 |
| 16 | Unión La Calera | 21 | 25 | – | – | 99% | 15.6 |
Pts = current points, Exp. pts = average at the end, Avg pos = expected final position. “–” means: did not occur in any simulation.
Work it out yourself: Chilean Primera División league table calculatorChilean Primera División tips
Who will win the Chilean-Primera-División title in 2026?
Colo-Colo is the clear title favourite: the team finishes first in over 99 per cent of simulations. The closest challenger is Universidad de Chile (<1%).
Who goes down?
Unión La Calera are most at risk: in 99 per cent of simulations the team finishes in a relegation place (Places 15–16). Also in danger: Universidad de Concepción (91%), Cobresal (10%).
How the prediction is made
For each of the 30 remaining matches, a Poisson model estimates the expected goals of both teams: the home side’s home strength against the visitors’ away strength from the current season. So that a few games are not overrated, all teams start from a baseline based on the previous season (promoted teams at the level of the relegated ones) and only move away from it with each game; early in the season this baseline counts more. Points per game also make up half of the rating, because goals alone underrate narrow wins and efficiency. In each run every team’s strength also varies slightly (form, injuries, uncertainty of the estimate). Then all remaining matches are simulated and the final table is sorted by points, goal difference and goals scored. This happens 10,000 times with a fixed seed; the percentages are the shares of these runs.
- The allocation of European and relegation places may still shift due to cup winners or licensing decisions.
- Point deductions, licence withdrawals and rulings off the pitch are not modelled.
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Predictions without guarantee, not betting advice.